園田義明めも。

米国、ＥＵ、中国、それに日本。それぞれが抱える爆弾が同時期に炸裂するような予感。
それが起こるのはやはり２０１２年～２０１３年。
引き金となるのは２０１２年頃の中国バブル崩壊か。
日米はまんまと逃れることができるかも・・・。


＜関連記事引用＞

Greenspan Calls Treasury Yields ‘Canary in the Mine’ (Update4)
By Joshua Zumbrun and Craig Torres
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601010&sid=a9Q2kWv97Yys

March 26 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said the recent rise in Treasury yields represents a “canary in the mine” that may signal further gains in interest rates.

Higher yields reflect investor concerns over “this huge overhang of federal debt which we have never seen before,” Greenspan said in an interview today on Bloomberg Television’s “Political Capital With Al Hunt.”

“I’m very much concerned about the fiscal situation,” said Greenspan, 84, who headed the central bank from 1987 to 2006. An increase in long-term interest rates “will make the housing recovery very difficult to implement and put a dampening on capital investment as well.”

The yield on 10-year Treasury notes was 3.85 percent at 3:08 p.m. in New York, down three basis points from late yesterday and up from 3.69 percent at the end of last week.

U.S. interest-rate swap spreads declined to the lowest levels on record this week, reflecting investor concerns about the ability of nations to finance rising fiscal deficits.

The rate to exchange floating- for fixed-interest payments for 10 years fell below the comparable-maturity Treasury yield for the first time on March 23. The swap spread reached as low as negative 10.19 basis points yesterday before reaching negative 7.63 basis points.

Record Deficit

The U.S. budget deficit reached a record $1.4 trillion for the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 amid falling tax revenue from the recession, a bailout of the banking and auto industries, and the $787 billion economic stimulus package.

“I don’t like American politics and what’s happening,” Greenspan said.

Historically, there has been “a large buffer between the level of our federal debt and our capacity to borrow,” he said. “That’s narrowing. And I’m finding it very difficult to look into the future and not worry about that.”

Greenspan said in an interview last year that a consumption tax was a likely response to a widening budget deficit. That may not be sufficient when the gap is caused by a failure to cut spending, he said today.

“I’m not convinced by any means that we can succeed in stabilizing this long-term outlook strictly from a value-added tax,” Greenspan said.

2001 Tax Cut

Greenspan in 2001 supported the first round of tax cuts under President George W. Bush. At the time, the federal government operated with a surplus, and Greenspan told Congress he didn’t think the cuts would lead to a deficit.

He told the Senate Budget Committee on Jan. 25, 2001, that “having a tax cut in place may, in fact, do noticeable good.” The next year he said it would be unwise to unwind the tax cut. As deficits returned, he became an opponent of further tax cuts, telling Congress in 2003 that “fiscal stimulus is premature.”

In today’s interview, the former Fed chairman said the U.S. economic recovery has been driven “to a very large extent” by a resurgence of stock prices. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 73 percent since its low on March 9, 2009. The index was little changed at 1,165.29 at 3:08 p.m. in New York.

“You can see the whole blossoming of finance,” Greenspan said. “As these stock prices have gone up, debt became far more valuable, and you can see this huge issuance, especially of junk bonds.”

A continued rally in share prices could help sustain the expansion, Greenspan said. Still, the unemployment rate could remain “not terribly far from where it is” at 9.7 percent as people re-enter the labor force to take advantage of job openings in a growing economy.

Company Earnings

The U.S. economy expanded at a 5.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2009, and corporate profits climbed, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Company earnings increased 8 percent, capping the biggest year- over-year gain in a quarter century.

On the Chinese economy, Greenspan said there are “significant bubbles” whose consequences will be hard to predict because of a lack of data.

“There are significant bubbles in Shanghai and along the coastal provinces, but there’s some of that going back into the hinterlands as well,” Greenspan said. “Remember that the bursting of the bubble by itself is not a big catastrophe. We had a dot-com bubble, it burst, and the economy barely moved.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Joshua Zumbrun in Washington at jzumbrun@bloomberg.net; Craig Torres at ctorres3@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: March 26, 2010 17:42 EDT


グリーンスパン氏：米国債利回り上昇は「坑道のカナリア」 (Update2)
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90920000&sid=aYDV.wIUw4Mk

３月26日（ブルームバーグ）：アラン・グリーンスパン前米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）議長は、最近の米国債利回り上昇は「坑道のカナリア」のようだとし、今後の一段の上昇を示唆していると述べた。

　　同氏は26日、ブルームバーグテレビジョンのインタビューに応じ、利回り上昇は「米連邦政府が積み上げた前代未聞の巨額債務」に対する投資家の懸念を反映していると指摘。自身も米国の「財政状態について深く懸念している」と述べた。長期金利上昇は「住宅市場の回復実現を極めて難しくすることに加え、設備投資にも悪影響を与える」と付け加えた。

　　グリーンスパン氏はまた、米景気回復は「非常に大きな部分」を株価の回復に負っているとの見解を示した。株価上昇が続けば景気拡大の持続に役立つだろうと指摘する一方で、景気拡大により求人が増えれば労働市場に再参入する人も増えるため、失業率は9.7％という「現水準からあまり変わらない水準」にとどまるだろうと予想した。


グリーンスパン氏：中国には「相当大きなバブル」－結果予想は困難
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/apps/news?pid=90900001&sid=aQ0WgZLyFFiM

３月26日（ブルームバーグ）：アラン・グリーンスパン前米連邦準備制度理事会（ＦＲＢ）議長は、中国には相当大きなバブルが生じているとの認識を示した上で、その結果を予想するのは難しいと発言した。

　　同氏は26日、ブルームバーグテレビジョンのインタビューに応じ「上海や沿岸部は相当大きなバブルになっているが、バブルは一部の内陸地域にも広がっている」と語った。

　　「そのバブルがいつはじけるか、そしてどのような結果をもたらすかを予想するのは難しい。中国について、われわれは十分なデータを持っていないからだ」と続けた。「バブルが破裂すること自体は、壊滅的大打撃というわけではない。インターネットバブルもあったが、経済はほとんど揺れなかった」と付け加えた。