ゲーツ国防長官発言で注目集める対艦弾道ミサイル「東風２１Ｄ」 ― 2011/01/10 11:06
１月８日１１時に配信された時事のこの記事。
戦略ミサイル部隊視察へ＝訪中で核透明性求める－米国防長官
http://www.jiji.com/jc/c?g=int&k=2011010800093
この記事にある「東風３１Ａ」はピントハズレと思いつつ、ツイッターで『「視察」なのか「査察」なのか。見たいのは対艦弾道ミサイル「東風２１Ｄ」だろうね。』と呟いたのはこの私。 http://twitter.com/YS_KARASU/status/23587759352455168
丸一日経ってロバート・ゲーツ米国防長官が「東風２１Ｄ」に言及したことから、ようやく日経記事にその名が登場。
中国の「A2AD（Anti-Access/Area Denial）＝接近阻止・領域拒否」戦略の柱と見做されている対艦弾道ミサイル「東風21Ｄ」。別の名は「ゲーム・チェンジャー」。それはまるで「真珠の首飾り」に近づくなと言わんばかり。
その影響を直接受けるのは米国ではなく日本。どうなる日本のシーレーン。しかし、今の日本人にとってそんなことはもうどうなってもいいことなのだろう。
＜関連記事引用＞
中国のミサイル開発に懸念 米国防長官が訪中
2011/1/9 22:00
http://s.nikkei.com/faldkC
ゲーツ米国防長官は９日、北京入りし、日中韓３カ国歴訪を開始した。ロイター通信などによると、北京への専用機内で同行記者団に「中国の対艦弾道ミサイル開発を懸念している」と述べた。空母を攻撃できる対艦弾道ミサイル「東風21Ｄ」を念頭に「初期運用能力を得たかは不明だが、開発はかなり進んでいる」との認識を示した。
敵のレーダーに探知されにくいステルス性能に優れている中国空軍の第５世代戦闘機の開発が「米情報機関の当初の予想より早く進んでいる可能性がある」とも指摘した。18日からの胡錦濤国家主席の訪米前に自らが訪中することは「中国が米中関係を強化したいことを示している」と語った。朝鮮半島情勢の安定に向けた中国側の努力も評価した。
ゲーツ氏は10日に梁光烈国防相と会談するほか、次期最高指導者に固まった習近平国家副主席とも会談。11日は胡主席（中央軍事委員会主席）と会談し、12日は第２砲兵（戦略ミサイル部隊）の関連施設を視察する。 （北京＝佐藤賢）
中国の対艦弾道ミサイル、米国防長官が強く警戒
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/world/news/20110109-OYT1T00428.htm
【米国防長官専用機中＝小川聡】ゲーツ米国防長官は８日夕（日本時間９日朝）、北京へ向かう専用機中で記者会見し、中国が開発中で米空母への攻撃が可能な対艦弾道ミサイル（ＡＳＢＭ）について強い警戒感を示した。
長官は「就任以来、ずっと関心を払っている。初期運用能力があるかどうかはわからないが、かなり進展している」と述べた。
中国が開発中のＡＳＢＭは射程約１５００キロ・メートル。中国本土から発射し、衛星などを通じた精密誘導で海上の米空母をピンポイントで攻撃できるとされる。対地攻撃にも使えるため、在日米軍基地も標的になりうる。開発に成功すれば、東アジアでの軍事紛争に米軍を介入させないという中国の「接近拒否戦略」の切り札になるとみられている。（2011年1月9日20時44分 読売新聞）
米国：ゲーツ国防長官が中国到着 対艦ミサイルに警戒感
http://mainichi.jp/select/world/news/20110110k0000m030059000c.html
【北京・成沢健一】ゲーツ米国防長官は９日夜、日中韓歴訪の最初の訪問国となる中国に到着した。ＡＰ通信などによると、北京に向かう専用機内でゲーツ長官は同行記者団と会見し、中国がレーダーに捕捉されにくいステルス戦闘機や空母を破壊する能力を持つ対艦弾道ミサイルの開発を急いでいることに警戒感を示した。
会見でゲーツ長官は「就任以来、中国による対艦弾道ミサイル開発を懸念してきた。運用能力を有しているかは不明だが、開発はかなり進展している」と述べた。中国四川省成都で滑走試験を行ったと伝えられるステルス戦闘機「殲２０」についてゲーツ長官は「米情報機関の予測よりも早く開発が進んでいるかもしれない」との見方を示した。
その上でゲーツ長官は「（中国の兵器開発は）我々に対して潜在的な危険を及ぼす可能性がある。注意を払い、適切に対処しなければならない」と指摘し、長距離爆撃機などの開発に力を入れる考えを示した。一方で、対話を通じて中国側の戦略意図を明らかにし、不測の事態を避ける必要性を強調した。
また、朝鮮半島情勢に関連し、ゲーツ長官は「中国は昨年後半、緊張緩和のために建設的な役割を果たした」と評価した。
中国外務省の洪磊（こうらい）副報道局長は６日の定例会見で「中国は一貫して対米軍事関係を重視しており、（ゲーツ長官の）訪問が両軍の相互理解と信頼の増進につながることを望む」との期待感を示している。
ゲーツ長官の訪中は、ブッシュ政権下の０７年１１月以来。当初は昨年６月に予定されていたが、米国による台湾への武器売却に中国が反発し、延期されていた。１２日まで滞在し、梁光烈国防相や胡錦濤国家主席らと会談するほか、核戦略を担う第２砲兵（戦略ミサイル部隊）司令部を視察する。長官は中国の後、１２日に日本を訪問、１４日には韓国を訪れる。
Defense_gov News Transcript
Media Availability with Secretary Gates en route to Beijing, China from Andrews Air Force Base
January 08, 2011
http://www.defense.gov/transcripts/transcript.aspx?transcriptid=4748
GEOFF MORRELL (press secretary, Department of Defense): Yeah, let me make one – sorry, one point, sir. We’re going to – we’ve got a long trip. We’re going to be seeing you guys many, many times over the course of this trip. So let’s confine this discussion, if we could, to China where’s there’s a lot to talk about. We’ll get to Japan and Korea in later stages of the trip, if you guys don’t mind.
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE ROBERT GATES: I’ll just – I will say kind of as opening one-liner that – I mean, obviously, the purpose of the trip is to see if we can further expand the military-to-military relationship between the United States and China, deepen it, and also visiting our allies – Japan and Republic of Korea – partly in the wake of the tensions on the Korean Peninsula last fall and the provocations from the North, but also looking for continuing efforts to strengthen those two alliances as well.
In China, the main purpose, as I say, is to look for ways to expand the relationship. I think that seeing if we can come to agreement on developing a strategic dialogue that talks about strategy and policies and perhaps outlooks. I believe for a long time that that kind of a dialogue contributes to not just greater understanding, but contributes to avoiding miscalculations and misunderstandings and miscommunication.
We’ll also be looking at – when General Xu was in Washington I guess in November – October of ’09, we agreed on seven specific areas of cooperation – more high-level visits, more exercises, more exchanges from our professional military organizations and so on. Most of that has been on hold ever since and so I’d like to see if we can move forward in those areas as well.
I think that, you know, it’s pretty clear the Chinese wanted me to come before President Hu visits Washington. My own view is that a positive, constructive, comprehensive relationship between the United States and China is not just in the mutual interest of the two countries, it’s in the interest of everybody in the region, and I would say across the globe. And I think certainly the president is looking forward to having President Hu in Washington, and my hope is that this visit will strengthen what I think both presidents believe is an underdeveloped part of the relationship. From the time of their first meeting, President Hu and President Obama have wanted to see the military-to-military relationship be strengthened.
And, finally, I would just I would like to see this relationship go forward in a way that is sustained and reliable, that despite the ups and downs that come with any relationship that this channel – these channels remain open in our efforts together and continue to go forward.
Q: You sounded some of the same notes when you came here in 2007, talking about –
SECRETARY GATES: I remember.
Q: In the intervening years, what have you learned? What do you think makes this different to prevent the ups and downs in the military-to-military relationship – (inaudible)—on again, off again? How can you think broader? How can you – (inaudible)?
SECRETARY GATES: Well, I think – first of all, I think the overall environment and atmosphere is perhaps better. Certainly from our standpoint, we recognize that China played a constructive role in lessening tensions on the peninsula in the latter part of last year, and clearly there’s an interest in both countries of having President Hu’s visit be successful.
And I think, again – I’m sorry I have to repeat myself – I think that the Chinese clear desire that I come first – come to China before President Hu goes to Washington was an indication of their interest in strengthening this part of the relationship in terms of helping further set the environment and the tone for Washington.
Q: Just a quick follow-up. Taiwan obviously has talked about political dignity – (inaudible) – politics and – (inaudible). Is there a concern that – (inaudible) – they cannot understand – (inaudible) – the basic military-to-military relationship?
SECRETARY GATES: Well, the point that I made to General Liang in Hanoi was that that decision is a political decision and to isolate it or to confine the consequences or the reaction purely to the military arena, I think is not consistent with the nature of the decision-making itself. And of course, as you suggest, I mean, the whole basis of this relationship is the three joint communiqués and the Taiwan Relations Act, and I think we’ve been pretty selective over the years in ensuring that those sales were defensive in nature, but I’m sure that the topic will come up.
Q: Mr. Secretary – (inaudible.) –
SECRETARY GATES: We don’t know the answer to that question.
Q: (Inaudible) – China’s civilian leadership wants a better military-to-military relationship with the U.S. and are to some extent being frustrated by the Chinese military.
SECRETARY GATES: Well, again, I don’t know. The – it is clear that, as I said earlier, I mean, clearly President Hu wants this to be better, just as President Obama does – the military-to-military relationship. I mean, I can say that my meeting with General Liang in Hanoi was very cordial and I expect this to be a good visit, so in terms of the sort of the ins and outs of internal politics, I just don’t know.
Q: ( Inaudible.)
SECRETARY GATES: I think that, you know, speaking in broad terms, I think one of our goals is to see if we can get out ahead of these periodic provocations by the North Koreans and bring greater stability to the peninsula. We both have – we have a mutual interest in that. And I think that the one topic for both my visit and for President Hu’s meetings with the president is how can we work together to prevent further provocations, bring greater stability, and then see if we can move forward with North Korean denuclearization and some of the other things that they could do that would open the way for further progress.
Q: (Inaudible.)
SECRETARY GATES: That’s more in Secretary Clinton’s bailiwick than mine and I think, you know, at some point that clearly is desirable, but in terms of the sequencing I’ll leave that to the secretary of state.
Q: (Inaudible.)
SECRETARY GATES: Well, I don’t think that – I think the way I will frame it is that I think that this military-to-military relationship, as I said earlier, should be sustainable and reliable and to keep this channel open even in times when there may be political disagreements between the two countries. That will be my approach.
Q: (Inaudible) – policy change on either side? I think on a real – (inaudible) – going to break this cycle that’s been going on for the last however many years. Why should anyone expect any kind of breakthroughs on this trip?
SECRETARY GATES: Well, I’m – I think that this is evolutionary and particularly the military-to-military side, and so rather than something dramatic – some kind of a dramatic breakthrough, I think just getting some things started would be a positive outcome.
Q: (Inaudible) – quoted in the WikiLeaks cables here – (inaudible) – documents as saying that, you know, it’s very hard to get tough with your banker. Do you – talking about China. Do you have – is that – would you agree overall with that and because the Chinese have said that in some quarters they see us as a declining power because of our financial crisis, does that change the nature of the talks with the Chinese from 2007 to now?
SECRETARY GATES: Certainly not from my standpoint. My – I make the broader point with people because I’ve watched this sort of cyclical view of American decline come around two or three times, perhaps most dramatically in the latter half of the 1970s. And my general line for those both at home and around the world who think the U.S. is in decline – that history’s dustbin is filled with countries that underestimated the resilience of the United States. And I think that – I mean, the economic relationship between the United States and China is mutually beneficial. It’s not a one-way street. And so I think both countries have an interest in keeping that stable and going forward. So I – that kind of thing doesn’t – you know, the – that kind of thing really doesn’t much enter into in my thinking.
Q: Mr. Secretary, would you consider the sale of U.S. helicopters – non-military variety of helicopters to China if they asked?
SECRETARY GATES: That’s the first I’ve ever heard of it, so I would have to –
Q: They’ve said they want to buy certain kinds of dual-use helicopters – (inaudible).
SECRETARY GATES: I’d have to look at it. I just – I don’t want to answer just off the top of my head.
Q: Secretary, considering the revelations recently about the new ballistic missile that the Chinese are developing faster than American – the U.S. intelligence thought and the stealth fighter photos which have come out, does this – first of all, does this lend any additional urgency to your visit? Are you particularly concerned about that? And secondly, are you doing anything to address the possible – or checking to possible intelligence lapses that allowed them to get further than expected?
SECRETARY GATES: Well, I think, first of all, we’ve been watching these developments all along. I’ve been concerned about the development of the anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles ever since I took this job. I would – we knew they were working on a stealth aircraft. I think that what we’ve seen is that they may be somewhat further ahead in the development of that aircraft than our intelligence had earlier predicted.
The one statement that I would make in terms of – I never said – as somebody quoted me – that their stealth aircraft didn’t matter. What I said was that in 2020 or 2025 that there would still be a vast disparity in the number of deployed fifth generation aircraft that the United States had compared to anybody else in the world. And I continue to stand by that statement even with some of the program changes that we’ve made in the Joint Strike Fighter.
And so these are matters of concern, and frankly if you go back and look very carefully at that egregiously long statement from last Thursday, you will notice that there – some of these higher priority areas for investment are focused on some of these anti-access programs.
Q: Let me just clarify what you said. You said the intel on the stealth fighter was – that they were (moving ?)ahead of that, faster than you thought?
SECRETARY GATES: Somewhat.
Q: (Inaudible.)
SECRETARY GATES: Well, I’ve heard it. I’d seen it about the stealth, but not – about the aircraft but not the missiles.
Q: Mr. Secretary, the last time that you were here, you talked very specifically about transparency with the Chinese. Is that something that you’ll be pushing again soon?
SECRETARY GATES: Well, I think that becomes – my hope would be that that would be part of the strategic dialogue, that as the two countries begin to talk about strategy and policies and so on that intentions will become more transparent. And I think that would be helpful.
MR. MORRELL: I think there is one last – (inaudible) – you were following up on it – (inaudible) – investments – (inaudible) – that you’re following up on?
Q: Do you believe that this stealth fighter once and for all. There’s a lot of talk about whether or not it actually is a stealth – (fighter ?).
SECRETARY GATES: I think there is some question about just how stealthy.
Q: (Inaudible.) What are the concerns you have about the development of these capabilities?
SECRETARY GATES: They clearly have the potential to put some of our capabilities at risk and we have to pay attention to them, we have to respond appropriately with our own programs. My hope is that through the strategic dialogue that I’m talking about that maybe the need for some of these capabilities is reduced.
Q: (Inaudible) – do you believe the DF-21, the – (inaudible) – anti-ballistic missile, anti-ship ballistic missile already has initial operation capability? And with regard to that, the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission report write a concern that U.S. base in East Asia, including – (inaudible) – will be attacked by Chinese ballistic missiles. Do you share the same concern?
SECRETARY GATES: Well, I don’t want to talk about hypothetical military situations. I would say that – if I understood the first question correctly about whether the anti-ship missiles are operational at this point – is that the question?
MR. MORRELL: Yes.
SECRETARY GATES: I think that the development has proceeded fairly – I think they’re fairly far along, but whether it’s actually reached IOC or not, I just don’t know.
MR. MORRELL: Okay. Thank you, guys.
＜関連記事＞
中国に向かう機中で会見する米国防長官 （画像引用）
http://www.jiji.com/jc/p?id=20110109162535-0293895
空母攻撃ミサイル開発が進展＝中国のステルス機も警戒－米国防長官
http://www.jiji.com/jc/c?g=int_30&k=2011010900072
米長官、中国対艦ミサイルに懸念 安保対話強化訴え
http://www.47news.jp/CN/201101/CN2011010901000194.html
中国の新型ミサイル「東風２１Ｄ」は米空母を殺すゲーム・チェンジャー
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/08/09/5274841
「それ見たことか」とセイウチ逆襲、中国にかみつくネオコン・ボルトンが対艦弾道ミサイル（ＡＳＢＭ）にも言及
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/08/12/5281133
朝日新聞：マイヤーズ元米統合参謀本部議長・インタビュー一問一答、対艦弾道ミサイル（ＡＳＢＭ）にも言及
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/08/17/5292526
中国の対艦弾道ミサイルで、アジアの海は中国の湖になるのか ― FOREIGN AFFAIRS JAPAN より
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/10/06/5384925
パンダの真珠に東風、首飾りへの接近阻む対艦弾道ミサイル（ＡＳＢＭ）
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/12/08/5565201
米空母を殺すゲーム・チェンジャーこと中国の新型ミサイル「東風２１Ｄ」最新情報
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/12/29/5614085
新型ミサイル「東風２１Ｄ」とは： How It Works: China's Antiship Ballistic Missile
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/12/30/5615146
読売：自立はいつ？…成人式、目立つ親子同伴、陰謀系も小沢信者も「一億総ガキ社会」の権化ちゃん？ ― 2011/01/10 12:23
「そろそろ彼氏はできたか？」
「うーーん。そんな雰囲気じゃないんだよね。みんなガツガツしてないし」
我が家の食卓でよく交わされるこんな会話。
高校生の娘二人は草食系男子にまったく興味なし。
単に娘たちがもてないだけかもしれないが・・・。
とはいえ小さい頃から塾通い。蝶よ花よと育てられたボクちゃんが確かに多いらしい。
少子化の影響がこんなところにも。
読売記事で紹介されている「一億総ガキ社会――『成熟拒否』という病」の内容説明にはこうある。
精神科医である筆者が最近の臨床現場で感じている、3つの特徴的な傾向がある。
1、ひきこもりの増加にみる打たれ弱さ
2、何でも他人のせいにして切り抜けようとする他責的傾向
3、覚醒剤や合成麻薬などにすがる依存症の増加......。
何でも他人のせいにして切り抜けようとする他責的傾向。何でも他人のせいにする他責的クレーマー。
これをこんな風に置き換えて見るとおもしろい。
何でも米国のせいにして切り抜けようとする他責的傾向。何でも米国のせいにする他責的クレーマー。
まさにこれは反米叫ぶ陰謀系によく見られる現象。陰謀系にはなぜか小沢一郎を反米の神様と見做し、小沢信者となっている人が多い。
なんでもかんでも米国のせい。小沢担いで切り抜けようとする他責的他力本願的傾向。小沢ならきっとなんとかしてくれる。小沢と古きよき時代の強い父親像を重ね合わせながら、「小沢こそが救世主」と崇める信者特有の気持ち悪さ、青臭さ。
陰謀系も小沢信者も「一億総ガキ社会」の権化なのかもしれない。
＜関連記事引用＞
自立はいつ？…成人式、目立つ親子同伴
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/news/20110110-OYT1T00122.htm
少子化の影響か、ここ数年、成人式に親が同伴する姿が目立つようになってきた。
親たちは「ここまで育ててきたので、晴れ姿を見守るのは当然」と話し、主催者も見学スペースを確保。「親子同伴成人式」は、すっかり市民権を得たかに見える。だが、「若者の精神的な自立が損なわれる」との懸念の声も強い。子どもが自立するのは一体、いつなのか。成人式の会場をのぞいてみた。
８日、金沢市石引の「本多の森ホール」で開かれた成人式では、約８００人の新成人が出席。その周囲をコの字に取り囲むように座っていたのが、普段着姿の保護者たち、その数は約１５０人に上った。
同市田上新町の男性会社員（４７）は、会社を休んで娘の晴れ姿を見に来ていた。「２０歳はまだまだ子ども。就職して社会人になるまでは責任を持って、面倒を見ないと」と目尻を下げていた。
企画者の一人で、俵公民館の主事を務める小倉弘美さんは「５年前は、成人代表者の保護者が来ていただけだったのに」と驚きを隠せない様子だった。
９日に市内のホテルで開催された式でも、新成人２２０人が座る後方で、６０人の保護者が３列になり、真剣な表情でビデオカメラを回していた。列にいた男性会社員（５０）は、「成人式は単なるお祭り。家族で楽しむものだ」とあっけらかんと話していた。
親子同伴の成人式について、新成人の間からは「仲がいいのは良いこと。見たいなら来てもいい」「育ててくれたし当然」との声も上がり、当然と受け止めている人も多いようだ。しかし、同市の大学２年生の男性は（２０）は、「学生で経済的には親に依存しているものの、成人式は自立の出発点。親が来るのはおかしい」といい、親子で出席する同世代の感覚に首をかしげていた。
親子関係に詳しく、「一億総ガキ社会――『成熟拒否』という病」の著書もある精神科医の片田珠美さんは、親子同伴成人式を「子離れできない親と、親離れできない子どもの共依存の象徴」と見る。その原因は、「少子化と平均寿命が伸びた影響が強い」という。
少子化で母親が子育てに失敗できないという重圧を背負い、過保護、過干渉になっていることに加え、親が長生きし、成人後も親の死を意識せずに甘えられる環境が整ったことで、子離れ親離れが難しくなっているというのだ。
成人式の出席者たちは、子どもの自立年齢をどう考えているのだろうか。
娘の成人式に夫婦で訪れた金沢市西大桑町の男性会社員（４３）は「就職したら子どもは一人前」と話すが、娘は１８歳で就職。その後も、部屋の片づけをしなさいと注意したり、朝、遅刻しないように起こしてあげたりと、自立とはほど遠い状況だ。
新成人の１人、同市もりの里の男性（２０）は、「子どもを見守るのは、親の責任。いつ自立するかと言われてもピンとこない」と話す。職業を問うと、口ごもった。親と同居しながら、アルバイトをしたり、しなかったりと不安定な生活を送っているのだという。片田さんは「今の２０歳の人生経験は、戦後間もなくの頃と比べたら、１４歳のレベル。現代の若者が成人になるのは、だいたい３０歳くらいではないか」と話している。（相川祐里奈）
（2011年1月10日10時50分 読売新聞）
＜関連書籍＞
一億総ガキ社会 「成熟拒否」という病 (光文社新書) 片田 珠美 (著)
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