園田義明めも。

＜関連記事＞

日系人学者「中国の政治システム、一瞬で爆発の恐れも」
2012年10月15日11時11分
http://japanese.joins.com/article/284/161284.html?servcode=A00&sectcode=A00

「中国の政治システムは一瞬で爆発してしまうかもしれない」。

米国の政治学者フランシス・フクヤマが警告した。富とソーシャルネットワークを基に影響力を伸ばしている中国中産層の拡大を根拠に上意下達式の政治システムが危機を迎えると予想したと１３日にＡＦＰ通信が報道した。フクヤマ氏は２０年前に社会主義体制の崩壊過程を見て著書「歴史の終わり」を通じ自由民主主義の勝利を宣言したことがある。

彼が中央集中的な政治システムを警戒する理由は、情報の交流が不可能なためだ。彼は「中国は常に皇帝が社会の底辺でどんなことが起きているのか推し量れなかった。これは多くの側面で共産党の問題と正確に一致する」と指摘した。

自由言論と地方選挙の不在もやはり円滑な疎通が成り立てない理由に挙げた。孤立した中央指導部は世論把握のために中国版ツイッターの微博（ウェイボー）などを検閲してきたが、このような統制がかえって国民意識を鼓吹させる火種として作用すると彼は主張した。

昨年７月に発生した温州での高速列車惨事がその例だ。当時中国指導部は事故の残骸を埋め雷のために事故が起きたものと偽装しようとした。だが微博に各種写真と証言が広がり管制システムの問題を認めなければならなかった。

フクヤマ氏はまた、「中国は真の法治と責任政治に対するメカニズムがなく、“悪い皇帝”問題に弱い」と指摘した。薄熙来の追放も、「彼がカリスマある指導者としてシステム全体を爆発させるほどの大衆的支持基盤を構築していったため」と主張した。彼は「共産党指導部の９０％以上が海外に資産を保有している。彼らもこのシステムの問題点をよく知っている」と分析した。


Chinese political system could 'blow up', says US academic
(AFP) – 2 days ago
http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5h_TSyVDSSKLCY9CjyChsd3HP2O3w?docId=CNG.805aa43f6fae763cf22c262a48474e46.1b1

PARIS — China's top-down political system, under pressure from a growing middle class empowered by wealth and social networks, is likely to "blow up at some point," US academic Francis Fukuyama told AFP in an interview.

"China has always been a country with a big information problem where the emperor can't figure out what's going on" at a grassroots level, said Fukuyama, best known for his 1992 book "The End of History and the Last Man," which argues that liberal democracy is the fulcrum of social evolution.

"This is in so many respects exactly the Communist Party's problem. Because they don't have a free media, they don't have local elections, they can't really judge what their people are thinking," he said this week, ahead of a conference on geopolitics in Paris.

An isolated central Chinese leadership compensates by gathering information through polling and eavesdropping on the nation's massively used micro-blogging platforms, especially the Twitter-like Sina Weibo, Fukuyama contends.

But these same networks are fueling "the growth of a national consciousness that did not exist under the controlled media setting of the Communist regime," he said.

"That is one of the reasons I think that China's system is going to blow up as some point."

The US academic, based at Stanford University, pointed to the fallout from a crash of China's showcase high-speed trains in July 2011 that left 40 dead and deeply shocked the the nation.

High-level officials sought to bury parts of the twisted wreckage, presumably to impede a thorough investigation as to what caused the accident, but a tsunami of chatter and photos on Weibo forced the government to backtrack.

A historically strong central state held in check neither by organized religion nor by civil society has helped China's leaders engineer spectacular and sustained growth, Fukuyama argues.

"You have to credit them with an amazing performance over the last 30 years."

But the absence of genuine rule by law and mechanisms for holding those in power accountable also leaves he country vulnerable to what he calls "the bad emperor" problem, he added.

"Up to now, their leadership has been composed of people who lived through the Cultural Revolution, and they do not want to see that repeated. But once they die off there's no guarantee you won't get another Mao," he said.

The recent purging of Communist Party boss Bo Xilai on charges of corruption was driven in part by other leaders' fear of his growing popularity, Fukuyama said.

"One of the reasons they felt they had to get rid of him was that he was a charismatic leader... developing a populist base that could blow up the whole system."

The full transcript of the interview can be found at http://blogs.afp.com/geopolitics.


＜画像引用＞

Fukuyama China on the brink, US on the blink – Geopolitics
http://blogs.afp.com/geopolitics/?post/2012/10/12/Francis-Fukuyama%3A-China-on-the-brink%2C-US-paralyzed