園田義明めも。

エコカー補助金打ち切りの影響をひしひしと感じて怯える毎日。

そうした中でＯＥＣＤ事務総長が先進国においては景気が二番底に陥る恐れはないとの見通しを示すものの、「日本は例外だ」との身の毛もよだつオマケ付き。

はたして日本は「二番底」一番乗りとなるのか。
民主党代表選のバカ騒ぎを見ていると、決してそうならないとは言い切れない。


＜関連記事引用＞

景気の二番底、日本以外で陥る恐れはない＝ＯＥＣＤ事務総長
2010年 09月 15日 04:33 JST
http://jp.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idJPnJT872575020100914

［アンカラ　１４日　ロイター］　経済協力開発機構（ＯＥＣＤ）のグリア事務総長は１４日、世界経済の回復は減速しているものの、先進国においては日本以外で景気が二番底に陥る恐れはないとの見通しを示した。

　同事務総長はアンカラでロイターのインタビューに応え「回復は減速しているが、景気の二番底はない。単なる回復の減速だ」と述べた。

　その一方で「日本は例外だ。日本は１０年間にわたりデフレと格闘しており、状況が異なる」とし、日本以外の国で「景気が二番底に陥ることは予想していない」と語った。

　ただ、世界経済の回復はぜい弱との見方を示し「家計部門は将来に対して完全に信頼感を持っているわけではない」とし「ＯＥＣＤ加盟国は依然として５０００万人の失業者を抱えている」と指摘した。

　国別では、ドイツ経済は第２・四半期に２．２％の成長率を達成した後、第３・四半期には減速すると予想。「ドイツの第２・四半期（成長率）はかなり良かったが、他の国と同様に第３・四半期には減速する」と述べた。　

　また、バーゼル銀行監督委員会が合意した新たな銀行自己資本規制「バーゼルIII」は非常に重要な成果だと評価。「成長率が若干影響を受けたとしても、システム全体の利益になるため、銀行の自己資本を規制する価値はある」と述べた。

　ただ、バーゼルIIIはそのプロセスの始まりにすぎないとの考えを示した。


OECD rules out double-dip recession in world economy
By Selcuk Gokoluk
ANKARA | Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:46pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE68D4IO20100914

ANKARA (Reuters) - The world economic recovery is slowing down but there is no prospect of a double-dip recession in the rich world excluding Japan, the OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said on Tuesday.

Governments in developed economies should seek a balance between measures required for sustaining the economic recovery and fiscal consolidation as it is hard to say whether the current weakness will be short-term or more permanent.

"We are saying yes there is a slowdown in the recovery, not a double-dip recession, just a slowdown in the recovery," Gurria told Reuters in an interview in Ankara, where he met the Turkish authorities ahead of publication of a survey on the country.

He ruled out a double-recession in the world economy.

"No, not according to our analysis. You have to take Japan away, because Japan has been fighting with deflation for 10 years. It is a different situation, but other than that no. We don't see double-digit recession," he said.

Gurria said the financial markets showed signs of normalizing, but urged governments to be careful and seek a balance between measures for sustaining recovery and fiscal consolidation.

He said the global recovery was fragile.

"Households are still not fully comfortable about the future. Households are still saying: I am not confident about tomorrow. There are still 50 million unemployed people in the OECD countries," Gurria said.

He predicted lower growth in Germany in the third quarter of this year, after it recorded a robust 2.2 percent growth for the second quarter. "Germany's second-quarter is quite well but it is going to slow down in the third quarter like everybody else," citing Germany's reliance on exports and outside economic activity for sustaining its strong economic growth.

Concerning stimulus packages, it is not possible to make a single recommendation as there is very little appetite for stimulus because of worries about debt in Europe.

"Adjust the strategy according to what is happening in the world because we are not still sure whether this (weakness) is going to be long-term," he said.

BASEL III

The OECD chief said he sees new capital rules set by global regulators for banks, announced on late on Sunday, as a very important achievement but the beginning of a process.

The new Basel III requirements will force banks to hold top-quality capital totaling 7 percent of their risk-bearing assets, more than triple what they do now.

The capital levels are significantly lower than levels banks globally feared earlier this year and lenders will have until January 2019 to comply with some of the rules.

"This is all about capital. The whole game is about capital, capital, capital," Gurria said.

"In general the trade-off is very simple. It is worthwhile to strengthen the capital of the banks even at the expense of a marginal impact on growth because of its benefit for the system," he said.

The Basel III agreement was reached in Switzerland by central bank governors and top supervisors from 27 countries, after a year of horse-trading and lobbying that involved banks and governments seeking to protect their national interests.

Leaders of the Group of 20 rich and big emerging economies blamed the global credit crisis partly on risky trading by banks and demanded tougher bank capital rules.

(Editing by Ron Askew)