園田義明めも。

チョークポイント依存度突出は日本と韓国。
つまり、ホルムズ海峡封鎖で困るのも日本と韓国。米欧なんて大して困らない。

そのことを意識してしている日本人がどれだけいるのだろう。
危機感を持ってホルムズ海峡を見ている日本人がどれだけいるのだろう。


＜関連記事＞

▼イランの動き

原油制裁科せばホルムズ海峡封鎖　イラン指導部決定と高官
http://www.47news.jp/CN/201201/CN2012010801001545.html

　【テヘラン共同】イラン指導部の親衛隊的性格を持つ革命防衛隊の高官は、核問題をめぐって原油輸出に制裁が科された場合、原油輸送の大動脈であるホルムズ海峡の封鎖を命じることを指導部が決定したと述べた。イランの保守系紙が８日伝えた。イラン産原油の輸入禁止で原則合意した欧州連合（ＥＵ）などを念頭に置いた発言とみられる。

　ホルムズ海峡の封鎖をめぐる発言としてはこれまでで最も強硬とみられる。国際社会の不安をあおるとともに、ＥＵをけん制し、日本などが輸入禁止に追随しないよう圧力をかける狙いがあるとみられる。


Revolutionary Guard commander says Iran will close key oil route if crude exports blocked
By Associated Press, Published: January 8
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle-east/iran-offers-to-share-nuclear-technology-with-african-nations-that-have-uranium-reserves/2012/01/07/gIQAe0jKhP_story.html

TEHRAN, Iran — An Iranian newspaper quotes a senior commander in Iran’s Revolutionary Guard as saying that Tehran’s leadership has decided to order the closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz at the mouth of the Persian Gulf if the country’s oil exports are blocked.

Khorasan daily reported Sunday that Ali Ashraf Nouri says the strategic decision has been made by Iran’s top authorities.

Iranian politicians have made the threat in the past, but this is the strongest statement yet that a closure of the strait is official policy.

The U.S. has recently enacted new sanctions targeting Iran’s central bank and its ability to sell petroleum abroad over Tehran’s nuclear program. Washington says Tehran is trying to develop weapons, while Iran denies the charges.


イラン“第２の核施設稼働へ”
1月9日 5時2分
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20120109/t10015137101000.html

国連決議を無視してウラン濃縮活動を進めているイランが、中部のコム近郊に建設した第２の核施設でも、近く、ウラン濃縮活動を始める方針を明らかにし、欧米側がさらに反発を強めるとみられます。

イランは、国連安全保障理事会の４度にわたる制裁決議を無視し、「原子力の平和利用」を主張しながら、核兵器の開発にも転用できるウラン濃縮活動を、中部のナタンズの核施設で進めています。

こうしたなか、イランのアッバシ原子力庁長官は、７日、中部のコム近郊に建設した第２の核施設でも、近く、濃縮度２０％のウランなどの製造を始める方針を明らかにしました。

翌８日付けのイランの保守系有力紙は「核施設はすでに稼働した」と伝え、コム近郊での濃縮活動がすでに始まった可能性もあります。

第２の核施設は３年前に建設が発覚したもので、地下深くにあるため、イスラエルなどによる軍事攻撃を避けながら核開発を進めることをねらっているとみられていて、去年からは、濃縮活動に必要な遠心分離器をナタンズの核施設から移す作業も行われています。

核開発問題を巡って、イランは、欧米など関係６か国との交渉を、隣国トルコで再開させたい意向を表明していますが、一方で、ウラン濃縮活動を推し進める姿勢を改めて示したことで、欧米側がさらに反発を強めるとみられます。


▼米国の動き

海峡封鎖なら軍事行動＝イランに警告－米国防長官
http://www.jiji.com/jc/c?g=int&k=2012010900003

　【ワシントン時事】パネッタ米国防長官は、デンプシー統合参謀本部議長とともに８日放映されたＣＢＳテレビの番組に出演し、イランが世界的な原油輸出航路のホルムズ海峡を封鎖することは決して許さないと強調、イランが海峡を封鎖すれば「われわれは行動を起こす」と述べ、軍事行動も辞さないと警告した。

　パネッタ長官は「ホルムズ海峡封鎖は越えてはならない一線だ」と強調、封鎖には「対処する」と言明した。

　一方、デンプシー議長は「イランは海峡封鎖能力獲得のため投資しており、一時的に封鎖する能力がある」と指摘。その上で「封鎖は世界的にも容認されず、われわれは行動を起こし、海峡を再開通させる」と述べ、軍事力を行使する考えを明らかにした。（2012/01/09-01:02）


Panetta, Dempsey Discuss Iran Situation
By Karen Parrish
American Forces Press Service
http://www.defense.gov/news/newsarticle.aspx?id=66712

WASHINGTON, Jan. 8, 2012 – Defense Department leaders agree international economic pressure represents a better option than military action in dealing with Iran.

In an interview with Bob Schieffer that aired today on the CBS news program “Face the Nation,” Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta and Joint Chiefs Chairman Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey said while the U.S. government prefers to peacefully resolve friction with Iran, the department closely monitors Iran’s nuclear program and actions affecting the Strait of Hormuz.

“We know that they’re trying to develop a nuclear capability, and that’s what concerns us,” Panetta said. “Our red line to Iran is: do not develop a nuclear weapon.”

The secretary noted all options to counter Iran, including military action, remain on the table.

“But the responsible thing to do right now is to keep putting diplomatic and economic pressure on them to force them to do the right thing, and to make sure they do not make the decision to proceed with the development of a nuclear weapon,” he said.

U.S. sanctions against Iran date to 1979, when an executive order froze Iranian assets in the United States in response to Iranian students’ hostage taking at the U.S. embassy in Tehran.

U.S. sanctions increased with a 1984 order limiting arms sales and prohibiting international loans to Iran. A 1987 executive order banned imports of Iranian-origin goods and services in response to aggressive action against shipping in the Persian Gulf.

Responding to Iran’s support of international terrorism and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction, the United States imposed further sanctions in 1995, barring U.S. involvement with petroleum development in Iran.

Additional sanctions in 1997, 2008 and 2010 limited U.S. investment, fund transfers and food trade with Iran. The 2012 National Defense Authorization Act imposes sanctions against Iran’s central bank, affecting Iranian oil exports to nations that do business with the United States.

The UN Security Council has imposed four rounds of economic sanctions against Iran, most recently in 2010.

Panetta said the international strategy toward Iran -- “to try to convince [them] that if they want to do what’s right, they need to join the international family of nations and act in a responsible way -- is working.”

The international community should continue working together on issues relating to Iran, he said.

“We have common cause here,” Panetta said. “We’re not interested in them developing a nuclear weapon; we are not interested in them proliferating violence throughout that region; we are not interested in them trying to assist in terrorism; we are not interested in them trying to destabilize governments in that region or anyplace else.”

If Iran takes the step to develop a nuclear weapon, he added, “They’re going to get stopped.”

Iran developing a nuclear weapon or blocking the Strait of Hormuz both represent “red lines” for the United States, the secretary said. The Iranian government has threatened to prohibit or restrict international maritime transit through the strait, which connects the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, and is the only ocean access for most Persian Gulf nations.

Iran could close the strait for a time, Dempsey said, but the United States has the ability to reopen the waterway.

“Yes, they can block it,” the chairman said. “We’ve described that as an intolerable act, and it’s not just intolerable for us, it’s intolerable to the world. But we would take action and reopen the straits.”

Dempsey said his job as the nation’s senior military officer is to ensure U.S. forces are prepared for any action they are ordered to carry out.

“My responsibility [regarding Iran] is to encourage the right degree of planning, to understand the risks associated with any kind of military action, [and] in some cases to position assets to provide those options in a timely fashion,” he said. “And all those activities are going on. “


＜画像引用＞

エネルギー白書2010
第1部 第1章 第4節 総合的なエネルギー安全保障の定量評価
http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/topics/hakusho/2010energyhtml/1-1-4.html

各国のチョークポイント依存度の推移 （エネルギー白書2010より）
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2011/09/06/6089940