園田義明めも。

＜関連記事＞

▼昨年の日本の貿易収支は1963年以来の赤字へ－ＪＰモルガン菅野氏(1)
http://www.bloomberg.co.jp/news/123-LXB8PY1A1I4H01.html

１月５日（ブルームバーグ）：2011年の日本の貿易収支（国際収支統計ベース）は、通年では1963年以来の赤字となる見通しだ。貿易赤字が増加を続け、海外投資からの収益である所得収支の黒字を相殺する結果、2015年には経常収支も赤字転落し、日本は資本輸入国となる可能性がある。ＪＰモルガン証券の菅野雅明チーフエコノミストが４日付のリポートでこうした見方を示した。

菅野氏は、昨年の貿易収支赤字化は、東日本大震災に伴う一時的な要因も影響しているとしながらも、「貿易収支悪化という構造的な変化は08年の世界的な金融危機の直後から始まっている」と指摘。その背景として、円高に伴う輸出への影響や世界経済の減速を挙げた。

同氏は「経常収支が赤字化すると、債券市場や為替市場にも大きな影響を及ぼす」と懸念する。日本が「資本輸入国となり、少なくとも財政赤字の一部は外国人投資家にファイナンスされる必要が生じる」ためだ。

さらに、仮に政府が「財政歳出削減と増税により日本の財政赤字が持続可能であることを投資家に示すことができれば、国債利回りの上昇は小幅に止まる」と説明。しかし、逆に「投資家が日本の財政赤字の持続可能性に対する懸念を深めるような場合には、国債利回りは急上昇する」とし、「その結果、政府の利払い費も急増する」ことになると述べている。


▼英文記事の方が詳しい。タンポポ・ジャパンの影響にも言及。

Japan Seen With First Trade Gap Since ‘63 in JPMorgan Outlook
January 05, 2012, 7:32 AM EST
By Eleanor Warnock
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-05/japan-seen-with-first-trade-gap-since-63-in-jpmorgan-outlook.html

Jan. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Japan probably recorded its first annual trade deficit since 1963 last year, part of a shift that may see the world’s largest net creditor come to rely on inflows of foreign capital by 2015, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“If foreigners don’t believe Japan’s fiscal situation will improve, Japan could become like Greece,” said Masaaki Kanno, chief economist at JPMorgan in Tokyo. “We’re getting poorer as the trade deficit increases.”

Japan’s ability to keep borrowing costs the second lowest in the world depends on its position as a net holder of external assets. A drop in savings as babyboomers dip into retirement funds and as a strong yen erodes company profits could push the nation’s current-account surplus into a deficit, making it more expensive for the country to borrow.

If Japan has a shortfall, the government must reassure investors of Japan’s creditworthiness or risk seeing an increase in bond yields, said Kanno, a former chief foreign-exchange dealer at the Bank of Japan. A failure by Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda to bolster the nation’s 5 percent sales tax could shake investor confidence, he said.

Japan retained its rank as largest net holder of external assets for a 20th straight year in 2010, with a position of 251.5 trillion yen ($3.3 trillion), according to the finance ministry. Figures for 2011 are due in May. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield, at 0.985 percent today, is the second lowest in the world after Switzerland.

Current Account

The world’s third-largest economy had a current-account surplus of 562.4 billion yen in October, the latest data available, while posting a trade deficit of 273.8 billion yen in the same period. The current account tracks the flow of goods, services and investment income between Japan and its trading partners.

The appreciation of the yen against the dollar also erodes Japan’s current-account surplus by making the country’s goods more expensive abroad. The yen has gained 8.5 percent against the dollar in the past year and reached a postwar high of 75.35 on Oct. 31. It traded at 76.73 per dollar as of 2 p.m.

JPMorgan estimates a 1 percent gain in the yen could reduce the export volumes by 0.34 percent, damping growth for a country that has relied on overseas demand to sustain its recovery from last March’s earthquake. According to JPMorgan calculations, a global expansion at 4 percent and a 5 percent drop in the yen would be necessary to stop a future expansion of the trade deficit, a situation that Kanno says is “unlikely.”

Japan’s current-account surplus could move into a deficit sooner than 2015 if more companies shift production abroad, Kanno said. Over 75 percent of Japanese cars will be produced abroad by 2014, up from 67 percent in 2011, JPMorgan estimates. Nissan Motor Corp. and Elpida Memory Inc. indicated last year they will increase production abroad to combat losses from a strong yen.

Japanese authorities have signaled they are concerned about a further appreciation of the yen. The Finance Ministry said last month it plans to increase the funds available for currency intervention to 195 trillion yen.


国民貯蓄と貿易収支の赤字が示す日本経済破綻のシナリオ
「双子の赤字」を回避するのに財政再建が欠かせない
小黒 一正 　
2012年1月5日（木）
http://business.nikkeibp.co.jp/article/topics/20111202/224801/?nktop

〔2012・財政の課題〕縮む経常黒字、財政赤字支える国内貯蓄の不安材料に
2011年 12月 28日 12:36 JST
http://jp.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idJPTK069512620111228


＜画像引用＞

日本再生に向けた検討課題について
平成２３年１１月２１日
経済産業大臣 枝野 幸男
http://www.npu.go.jp/policy/policy04/pdf/20111121/siryo2.pdf