園田義明めも。

日本国債を買い支えてきた国内金融機関。
それはまるで昔懐かし護送船団方式のようにも見える。

リスクを恐れ安全資産に群がってきたのが邦銀。
いよいよ護送船団の本丸がＩＭＦのストレステスト対象に。

長引くデフレも護送船団に起因するのではないか。
民間の活力を奪い取ってきたのも護送船団ではないのか。
成長戦略やイノベーションを殺してきたのは護送船団ではないのか。

リスクを取ろうともせずにその資金は日本国債へ。
しかし、安全資産に何か事が起きた場合には身を守ろうと一斉逃亡するだろう。

そうした事態を日銀は恐れている。
護送船団を支える相互依存の脆弱さを見抜いている。

ＩＭＦのストレステストが邦銀一斉逃亡のきっかけになることを願う。
いつかは沈むことが確実な日の丸タイタニック。
その護送船団は被害を拡大させるだけ。このまま放置すれば日本沈没。

政府・日銀・財務省も護送船団方式の失敗を認めよう。
特に自民党などは土下座もの。

その上で消費税増税をやらしてくれと国民に頭を下げてお願いするしかない。
プライマリー・バランスを黒字化し、政府は自力で借金返済の長い旅路。

旅は身軽な方がいい。日の丸タイタニックも「小さな政府」でスリム化を。
護送船団依存体質を悔い改めるお遍路の旅をお勧めしたい。


＜関連記事＞

ＩＭＦ、邦銀対象にストレステスト実施へ―国債保有リスクを試算
2012年 1月 6日 8:46 JST
http://jp.wsj.com/Japan/Economy/node_370861

【東京】国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は、日本国債が下落した場合に大量保有している邦銀がどのような影響を受けるか試算するストレステスト（特別検査）を実施する。これを受け投資家が、膨れ上がる日本の公的債務が日本経済にもたらすリスクについて焦点を合わせる可能性が出てきた。

　関係者によると、ＩＭＦの邦銀に対するストレステストはＩＭＦの金融部門評価プログラム（ＦＳＡＰ）に基づくもので、2002～03年に初めて実施されて以来のこと。米、独、英も同様の検査を受けているという。検査結果は、ＩＭＦが日本の政策当局者との間で毎年実施している対日政策協議の結果とともに公表される見通し。

　日本国債は現在のところ下落する兆候を示していないが、値下がりすれば邦銀は保有国債について評価損を計上し資本を毀損せざるを得なくなる恐れがある。邦銀は2000年代初め以降、資金運用難から国債を買い増ししてきている。日銀の統計によると、9月末現在で邦銀の保有高は383兆9110億円と、国債発行残高のほぼ39％に達している。

　日本の公的債務残高は対国債総生産（ＧＤＰ）比で200％超と、債務危機に陥っているユーロ圏を含めた先進国の中で飛び抜けて高い水準にある。このため政府は、財政健全化に向け消費税率を15年までに現在の2倍に当たる10％に引き上げることを計画しているが、実現の見通しは立っていない。

　関係者によれば、日本政府とＩＭＦは昨年終盤以降、ストレステストに当たって前提となる経済条件などに関する話し合いを行っている。ＩＭＦ使節団が検査のため3月に来日する予定で、検査は7月までに完了するとみられている。検査対象には主要銀行だけでなく地銀、さらにはゆうちょ銀行も含まれるという。


▼英文記事が詳しい。

JANUARY 6, 2012
Japanese Banks Get 'Stress Tests'
By TAKASHI NAKAMICHI
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203471004577142400394236924.html

TOKYO—The International Monetary Fund is conducting "stress tests" on Japanese banks to gauge how vulnerable they are to a potential drop in the value of their huge holdings of Japanese government bonds, people familiar with the matter said. The move could sharpen investors' focus on the risk to Japan's economy from its ballooning debt.

Credit-ratings firms, investors, and even Japan's central-bank governor have expressed concerns about the growing debt, now equal to about twice the country's annual economic output, but much of the attention has been on the government's ability to sustain its large budget deficits.

The IMF's tests may shed more light on another danger: the broad exposure of the Japanese financial system to JGBs and how much damage a rise in bond yields could inflict on Japanese banks. This comes as governments around the world are particularly sensitive to vulnerabilities in the financial system and to their own finances, in light of the euro-zone debt crisis.

The stress tests will be the first since 2002-03, when the IMF conducted its first close inspection of Japan's banking system under its Financial Sector Assessment Program. Japan isn't being singled out; the U.S., Germany and the U.K. also have been subject to similar FSAP examinations, one of the people said.

"This is what needs to be done. This is being conducted in other nations as well," this person said. The outcome may be made public in July together with the results of separate annual policy consultations between the fund and Japanese policy makers, the people said. Japan can require the IMF to keep the results private.

Japan's case could attract attention. The sovereign-debt crisis ravaging the euro zone has underscored the risks to European banks from their holdings of government bonds. JGB prices have so far shown no signs of weakness, with 10-yield yields now below 1%. But if yields rise, JGBs prices would fall, potentially forcing banks to write down their holdings and take hits to their capital.

Since the early 2000s, Japanese banks have increased investment in JGBs for lack of other profit-making opportunities amid Japan's ever-sluggish economy. Japanese banks held \383.911 trillion ($5.003 trillion), or roughly 39%, of outstanding JGBs, including short-term debt and government-guaranteed debt, as of Sept. 30, according to Bank of Japan data. That is equivalent to about 25% of their total assets.

A BOJ report on the financial system in October indicated major banks could sustain capital losses worth about \3.4 trillion and regional banks could face losses of \2.8 trillion if bond yields were to rise by a one-percentage point across the curve, pushing down prices of their bond holdings.

"Within both major and regional banks, the risks associated with bond investment have clearly increased," the BOJ report said.

Japanese interest rates could eventually rise if the government fails to get a grip on its budget deficits, analysts say. Public debt has grown to more than 200% of gross domestic product from around 150% in 2003, higher than any other major industrialized nation, including debt-crisis-hit European economies.

Closer scrutiny of the dangers posed by Japan's debt problem may add to pressure on the government, which continues to fund more than half of its spending through debt. The government aims to double the 5% sales tax by 2015 to help mend its finances, but the nation's political gridlock has kept the outlook for the tax plan foggy.

Since late last year, discussions on the stress tests have been under way among Japanese and IMF officials, such as over what economic conditions they should assume in measuring risks of banks' exposure to JGBs, one of the people said. The IMF's mission team plans to visit Japan in March for the tests, and the whole process is likely to be completed by July.

As in the previous test nearly a decade ago, the IMF is looking at major banks as well as regional banks, the people said. It is also examining Japan Post Bank, one of the biggest single investors in JGBs.

The results will depend on assumptions used, such as how quickly JGB yields could rise. Some finance ministry officials say the pace of any JGB yield gains could be slow as it wouldn't be easy for investors to shift such huge amounts of money quickly into other assets. But analysts warn moves could be abrupt, as illustrated by the rapid rises in Italian government bond yields in recent months.

Few economists expect Japan to fall immediately into a crisis similar to that in Europe. More than 90% of JGBs are held by Japanese investors. Japanese private-sector savings, for now, is also enough to absorb the government's debt sales. But if Japan's current debt trajectory continues, it could become harder for the government to maintain such stability in the JGB market.

Standard & Poor's cut Japan's credit rating by one notch to double-A-minus in January 2011, the first downgrade for Japan since April 2002, and has a negative outlook on the rating. Moody's Investors Service has a stable outlook on its Aa3 rating on Japan.

The IMF in November warned in a report that "should JGB yields rise from current levels, Japanese debt could quickly become unsustainable."


▼２０１１年１２月２２日
日本銀行
総 裁 記 者 会 見 要 旨
―― ２０１１年１２月２１日（水）
午後３時半から約４０分
http://www.boj.or.jp/announcements/press/kaiken_2011/kk1112d.pdf

日本の金融機関の保有比率が高いということは、それだけ同質的な人が投資をしているということであり、何か事が起きた場合には同じような行動を取りやすいという点で、むしろ変動を増幅する可能性も秘めているわけです。その意味で非居住者の保有比率が低いことは、短期的には安定材料であることは事実だと思いますが、しかしそうであるからといって、先行きも問題ないということではありません。


＜画像引用＞

資金循環統計（2011年第3四半期速報）：参考図表
２０１１年１２月２１日
日本銀行調査統計局
http://www.boj.or.jp/statistics/sj/sjexp.pdf