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今再び「ダーウィン」で1940年代へとバック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャー2011/11/19 08:43

今再び「ダーウィン」で1940年代へとバック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャー


英フィナンシャル・タイムズ(FT)の「米中地政学」分析。
英豪資源大手リオ・ティント事件に踏み込むあたりはFTならではと言える。

TPPに合わせて中国・国有企業問題を急浮上させた米国。
この問題のそもそもの始まりはリオ・ティントから。

リオ・ティントという虎の尾を踏んだ中国。
この時から英国メディアの中国に対する評価が極めて厳しいものへと変わる。
その急先鋒になったのがFT。

その変化を読み取っていた本ブログ。
2009年7月9日に「リオ・ティントという地雷を踏んだ巨人は火だるま」と書いた。
時節柄「土用ウナギならぬ土用ドラゴンはいらんかね~」と茶化した。
あれから2年。いよいよ火あぶりの刑に処されることになるのか。

人民日報系の環球時報はアホの典型。今またオーストラリアに対する恫喝記事。
「クロスファイア」を用いることで、板挟みどころか軍事的な十字砲火を示唆。

オーストラリアを脅せば英国が出てくる。当然まっ先にFTが反応。
英米の連携はますます強化され、英国は米国に入れ知恵開始。
あの時に日本が置かれた構図とまったく同じではないか。

オーストラリアを初訪問したオバマ米大統領。
来年半ばまでに北部ダーウィンに米海兵隊を最大250人駐留。
将来的には2500人規模にまで拡大すると発表。

FTが指摘するように、ダーウィンは1942年2月に日本軍が空襲した地。
世はまさに1930年代から1940年代へとバック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャー。

前回と異なるのは主役だけ。
あの時同様、青年将校たちの足音が中国から聞こえてくるとの情報に怯える毎日。
日本のようにブチギレないことを祈るばかり。


<関連記事引用>

FT:米中対立のはざまで翻弄される豪州
2011/11/18 21:19
(2011年11月18日付 英フィナンシャル・タイムズ紙)
http://s.nikkei.com/uRUb8p

 日本軍は1942年、真珠湾攻撃よりも大量の爆弾でオーストラリア・ダーウィンを空襲した。それを機に、豪州は米国の確固たる同盟国となった。今月17日、豪北部のこの都市を訪れたオバマ米大統領は、新時代に即した同盟の形として米海兵隊の豪州への駐留計画を発表した。

 ダーウィンなどに駐留する米海兵隊員の数はつつましいが、その戦略的意味は大きい。米豪の安保強化策は、アジアの将来を巡って米中の地政学的な対立が激化する過程で起こった極めて重大な出来事といえる。

 豪州は過去30年、いわば中国の台頭への早期警戒システムのような役割を果たしてきた。豪州は中国が持ちつつある世界への影響力を理解する絶好の出発点となる。

 豪州は、中国の潜在的な経済力に気がついた最初の国の1つだ。当時のホーク豪首相は85年、中国の胡耀邦共産党総書記を豊富な鉄鉱石が眠る西部のピルバラに案内した。それこそが現在の商品ブームの先駆けだった。以来、中国に輸出される鉄鉱石の量は毎年増え続け、それが中国の大規模な都市化を支えてきた。

 豪州の研究機関は英語圏で最良の中国ウオッチャーを多数擁し、ラッド外相に至っては中国語を話す西側世界で最初の首相にまで上り詰めた。

 豪州は他国に先駆け、中国の国有企業の影響力に翻弄されることも体験した。2009年には、英豪資源大手リオ・ティントの豪州国籍の中国系社員が、国家機密を盗んだ容疑で中国に逮捕された(その後産業スパイ容疑に切り替え)。社員は収賄容疑を認めて10年の実刑を宣告されたが、起訴には鉄鉱石価格を巡るリオと中国の対立が絡んでいたとの疑いが残った。

 中国が経済に占める重要性から、豪州は第2次大戦のさなかに形成された対米同盟から徐々に距離を置くとの予想もあった。豪州のレイビー元駐中国大使は冗談めかして「どの国も今の豪州ほど中国と緊密にはなれないが、豪州はもっと緊密になれる」と語ったものだ。

 しかし豪州が現在、米国との同盟関係を格段に強化している事実は、この数年、中国が無神経な外交行動でアジア・太平洋地域の国々をいかにいら立たせてきたかを雄弁に物語る。

 オバマ大統領の豪州滞在中、クリントン国務長官はフィリピンを訪問していた。中国の振る舞いを懸念を持って見つめる比は米国との安全保障の条約締結60周年を祝い、クリントン長官は新たな軍艦の供与を約束した。

 豪州を含むアジア・太平洋諸国は、経済的な活況に沸く中国との貿易は継続しつつ、他方で引き続き米国が提供する安全保障の傘の恩恵にも浴したいと算段する。

 各国はこれまで以上に対中国で団結を掲げ、米国が改めてこの地域への関与を強めれば、中国の破壊的衝動が抑制される一方で、アジアの経済繁栄は続くだろうと望む。

 しかし、それには米中対立がこれ以上悪化しないことが前提だ。将来、もっと痛みを伴う選択が豪州を待ち構えているかもしれない。

 米中の艦船が南シナ海で小競り合いし、紛争に発展すれば、米海兵隊が駐留する豪州は、安全保障の同盟国である米国と、主要な貿易相手国である中国との紛争に巻き込まれかねない。

 同じことをすでに中国側も指摘している。人民日報系の環球時報は16日、「豪州は中国を侮ってはならない」と題する論文を掲載した。「米国が中国の国益を傷つけるのに豪州の軍事基地を用いれば、豪州も人ごとでは済まされない」という内容だ。豪州は再度、他国に先駆け、現代の2超大国のはざまでほんろうされる新たな地政学的な運命へ歩み出すことになるかもしれない。

By Geoff Dyer


Global Insight
November 17, 2011 5:36 pm
Australia-US security pact is not without risk
By Geoff Dyer in Washington
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/fb7705b0-1138-11e1-a95c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1e0PDGY3d

In 1942 the Japanese air force dropped more bombs over Darwin than they had used at Pearl Harbor, and in the process turned Australia into a rock-solid ally of the US.

On Thursday Barack Obama, US president, visited the same northern Australian town and recast the alliance for a new era.

The numbers of American marines to be based in Darwin may be modest but the strategic significance is not. The beefed-up security pact with Australia is a hugely important episode in the growing geopolitical contest between China and the US over the future of Asia.

For the last three decades Australia has served as a sort of early-warning system for the rise of China. To understand the impact China is having on the world, Australia has been a good place to start.

Prodded by some far-sighted diplomats, Australia was one of the first countries to wake up to China’s economic potential.

In 1985, then prime minister Bob Hawke took Chinese leader Hu Yaobang on a personal tour of the Pilbara, a remote stretch of western Australia with vast deposits of iron ore. In a way it was the start of the current commodities boom.

Since then ever-larger slabs of the iron-rich red earth have been transported to China to make the steel for China’s mammoth urbanisation.

Australia’s think-tanks and universities have many of the best China-watchers in the English-speaking world, and in Kevin Rudd it had the first Chinese-speaking prime minister of a western country (Mr Rudd is now foreign minister).

But Australia was also well-ahead of the pack in being rattled by Chinese state-owned industry. In 2009 Stern Hu, an Australian citizen of Chinese origin who worked for Australian miner Rio Tinto, was arrested by the Chinese authorities on charges of stealing state secrets.

The charges were later reduced to industrial espionage and Mr Hu admitted to taking bribes, receiving a 10-year prison sentence. But the suspicion lingered that his prosecution was partly the result of a fierce dispute between the miners and Beijing over iron ore prices.

Given the central importance of China to its economy, Australia might have been expected to drift away from its close links with the US, which were forged in the heat of the second world war. “You could not get much closer to China than we are,” Geoff Raby, the former Australian ambassador to Beijing, used to joke. “But we will.”

Yet the fact that Canberra is doubling-up on its defence alliance with Washington is one of the most powerful indicators of the way that Beijing has unnerved the rest of the Asia-Pacific region over the last few years with its more abrasive diplomacy.

While Mr Obama was in Australia, Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, was in the Philippines, another regional neighbour which has watched Chinese behaviour with growing apprehension and which is celebrating a 60-year security pact with the US. She agreed to provide Manila with a new warship.

The calculation in Canberra and other capitals around the region is that they can continue to have it both ways – trading freely with a booming China while benefiting from the security umbrella provided by the US. With a greater show of unity and renewed American engagement in the region, these countries hope, China’s more disruptive instincts can be curtailed and the Asian boom will continue apace.

But all that assumes the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China does not escalate. There is another potential future that could await Australia which would involve more painful choices.

Suppose one of the skirmishes between Chinese and American ships in the South China Sea were to escalate. With US marines and kit on its territory, Australia could find itself pulled into a conflict between its security guarantor and its main market.

Some in China have not been slow to make the same point. “Australia cannot play China for a fool,” an article in the nationalist Chinese tabloid the Global Times said on Wednesday. “One thing is certain – if Australia uses its military bases to help the US harm Chinese interests, then Australia itself will be caught in the crossfire.”

Australia would then find itself blazing another geopolitical trail, as one of the first countries to be squeezed between the two great powers of the age.


Australia could be caught in Sino-US crossfire
Global Times | November 16, 2011 01:21
By Global Times Share
http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid/99/ID/684097/Australia-could-be-caught-in-Sino-US-crossfire.aspx

US President Barack Obama arrived in Australia today for a long-delayed visit. It is reported that Obama is going to announce an expanded US military presence in Australia. The move is widely seen as a renewal of the US-Australia alliance to keep China in check.

It is also interpreted as a choice made by Australia between the US and China, the two largest Asia-Pacific powers. Prime Minister Julia Gillard refuted the interpretation Tuesday, saying that "it is well and truly possible for us, in this growing region of the world, to have an ally in the US and to have deep friendships in our region, including with China."

Nevertheless, both Chinese and Australian media outlets know that this is merely diplomatic parlance. Some Australians worry that this unfriendly move will harm their country's relationship with China, its largest trade partner.

Apparently, Australia aspires to a situation where it maximizes political and security benefits from its alliance with the US while gaining the greatest economic interests from China. However, Gillard may be ignoring something - their economic cooperation with China does not pose any threat to the US, whereas the Australia-US military alliance serves to counter China.

Australia surely cannot play China for a fool. It is impossible for China to remain detached no matter what Australia does to undermine its security. There is real worry in the Chinese society concerning Australia's acceptance of an increased US military presence. Such psychology will influence the long-term development of the Australia-China relationship.

Some Australians have been arguing that China does need Australian resources to fuel its own economy, and thus the two countries rely on each other. It is true that China does not have many cards to play to respond to Australia. The US military presence in Australia will not change matters in the short-term. It remains to be seen how Australia will behave in the future and how China is going to respond.

But one thing is certain - if Australia uses its military bases to help the US harm Chinese interests, then Australia itself will be caught in the crossfire. Australia should at least prevent things from growing out of control.

China values its friendship with Australia, and people here understand Australia's difficulty in seeking the balance between two powers. However, there is a certain line that neither side should cross. Australia should cherish its friendship with China and show this, not merely spout soothing words.

Australia is nimble at navigating between great powers. We believe Australia has the wisdom of dealing with the US-China game and guarantee its own prosperity and security.

Australia should make endeavors to defuse, rather than increase, misgivings between the US and China. This will bring greater interests to both Australia's interests and to regional peace. In this regard, Australia can be a huge force for good.


<画像引用>

New national day for Darwin bombing
http://www.australiangeographic.com.au/journal/new-national-day-proclaimed-to-remember-darwin-bombing.htm


<関連記事>

リオ・ティントも炎上で土用ドラゴン完成間近?
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2009/07/09/4420149

天安門記念日にリオとチャイナルコの提携も破談へ
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2009/06/05/4343357

キッシンジャーに助けを求めるリオ・ティント
http://y-sonoda.asablo.jp/blog/2010/04/01/4987700