「バック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャー ～１９３０年代編～」に怯え始めた世界 ― 2011/08/03 08:47
本ブログが繰り返してきた「バック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャー ～１９３０年代編～」。そのネタに英フィナンシャル・タイムズや米フォーリン・アフェアーズやポール・クルーグマンまでも群がる今日。
バック・トゥ・ザ・フューチャーの本格的な始まりは来年２０１２年と予測してきたものの、半年程早まった可能性も。東日本大震災が背中を押したのか。しかも、日米欧中“同時”政策機能不全な状態を英エコノミスト誌は日本化と揶揄。やはり日本がキーワードに浮上中。
１９３０年代に戻るとすれば、当然その先には１９４０年代シナリオも準備中？ 締めを飾るメイン・イベントの主役はまたまた日本になるのか。いや、期待に応えるだけの破壊力など有していない日本は自ら不適格と宣言しておこう。
だとすれば、大役を担わされるのは・・・。１９４０年代再びの生贄となるのは・・・。
やはり中国しかない。欧米のチクチク刺激で中国のブチギレ大暴走となるのか。
日本は古臭いアジア主義に惑わされることなく米国の背後に寄り添う。下手に前に出ようものなら生贄ゲームに巻き込まれるだけ。米国と憲法九条を楯にしながら逃げ回ればいいのだ。
＜関連記事引用＞
▼ ＦＴ：景気下押し懸念に大揺れする市場
合意内容に辛口の評価、米国は1930年代の道をたどるのか？
http://jbpress.ismedia.jp/articles/-/17401
ドイツ銀行のアラン・ラスキン氏は、提案された財政緊縮策の規模に着目している。
「向こう5年間で実施される構造的な財政赤字の削減は、少なくとも、1930年代後半以降の『平時』に行われた緊縮策のどれよりも大きな規模になるだろう。そのため、景気が弱い中での財政引き締めは1937年の事例に似たものになる。当時は1936年から1938年にかけて財政赤字がGDP比で5％近く圧縮され、実質GDP伸び率が1938年に3％を超えるマイナスに落ち込んだ」
Worries over weak recovery quickly replace relief
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/b9988ef2-bc56-11e0-acb6-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1TugNshGa
▼ １９３０年代の悪夢が再現されるのか ―― 高まる保護主義の脅威
リアクァト・アハメッド ピューリッツァー賞受賞作家
http://www.foreignaffairsj.co.jp/essay/201104/Ahamed
１９３０年代の教訓からみて、失業率が高止まりし、通貨供給、為替、財政政策上の選択肢が失敗するか、選択肢にならない場合、国は貿易障壁を作り出す可能性が非常に高い。・・・しかも、20世紀の初頭同様に、いまや世界はグローバル経済のリーダーシップをめぐる大きな移行期にある。アメリカのパワーは大きく弱体化し、ワシントンには、もはや単独でグローバル経済のリーダーシップを担う力はない。一方で、中国がリーダーシップを果たすとも考えにくい。輸出ばかりを重視する重商主義的な貿易アプローチをとっている限り、北京が困難な状況にある諸国からの輸出を受け入れる開放的市場の役目を果たすことはないだろう。Ｇ20もまとまりを欠いている。１９３０年代と現在の類似性が表面化しつつある。経済は回復しているが、失業率が高止まりし、多くの製造部門は過剰生産能力を抱え込み、通貨問題をめぐる緊張が高まりつつある。１９３０年代のような深刻で大規模な経済停滞に陥るリスクを回避できたと言うのに、現在の指導者が、１９３０年代の近隣窮乏化政策を今に繰り返すとすれば、悲劇としか言いようがない。
Currency Wars, Then and Now
How Policymakers Can Avoid the Perils of the 1930s
By Liaquat Ahamed
March/April 2011
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/67472/liaquat-ahamed/currency-wars-then-and-now
▼ The Lesser Depression
By PAUL KRUGMAN
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/22/opinion/22krugman.html
For those who know their 1930s history, this is all too familiar. If either of the current debt negotiations fails, we could be about to replay 1931, the global banking collapse that made the Great Depression great. But, if the negotiations succeed, we will be set to replay the great mistake of 1937: the premature turn to fiscal contraction that derailed economic recovery and ensured that the Depression would last until World War II finally provided the boost the economy needed.
Krugman: ‘We are repeating the mistakes of the 1930s,’ Value-added tax plausible solution
http://dailycaller.com/2011/08/01/krugman-we-are-repeating-the-mistakes-of-the-1930s-value-added-tax-plausible-solution/
Second time farce: That 30s feeling
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/08/second-time-farce
It’s 1937. No, it’s 1938! Or is it 1930? Talk About Lousy Choices… - MarketBeat
http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/08/02/its-1937-no-its-1938-or-is-it-1930-talk-about-lousy-choices/
▼ America is merely wounded, Europe risks death
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8673577/America-is-merely-wounded-Europe-risks-death.html
We can only pray that at least one half of the Atlantic system holds relatively firm. If both go down together, buy a shotgun and prepare for 1932.
コメント
_ ロッキーホラーショー ― 2011/08/03 18:03
_ Y-SONODA ― 2011/08/04 04:43
ロッキーホラーショーさんへ
＞ヒットラーですら、日本がアメリカに開戦するまでは、宣戦布告できなかったわけで、一緒に戦ってくれるお仲間なんかいない中国に、アメリカに本気で喧嘩を売る度胸があるとは思えませんが。
鋭いですね。
ただし、プリチャード大明神のご神託にもあったように中国にも血気盛んな青年将校もちらほら。
中国通からこの情報の裏を取りましたが、確かにその動きありと。
失政により国内が荒れたら、外に敵を作りたいもの。
中共の経済成長モデルの限界が見えてきた時が危ないですね。
既にその兆候ありで、２０１２年からいよいよ本番へ。
とはいえ米欧の連中は中国人同士戦わせたいと思っているでしょう。
中国の海派と陸派の衝突を仕掛けてくると思います。
＞ヒットラーですら、日本がアメリカに開戦するまでは、宣戦布告できなかったわけで、一緒に戦ってくれるお仲間なんかいない中国に、アメリカに本気で喧嘩を売る度胸があるとは思えませんが。
鋭いですね。
ただし、プリチャード大明神のご神託にもあったように中国にも血気盛んな青年将校もちらほら。
中国通からこの情報の裏を取りましたが、確かにその動きありと。
失政により国内が荒れたら、外に敵を作りたいもの。
中共の経済成長モデルの限界が見えてきた時が危ないですね。
既にその兆候ありで、２０１２年からいよいよ本番へ。
とはいえ米欧の連中は中国人同士戦わせたいと思っているでしょう。
中国の海派と陸派の衝突を仕掛けてくると思います。
_ Y-SONODA ― 2011/08/04 07:50
＜関連記事追加引用＞
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The West's horrible fiscal choice
The US, Britain, and Europe are together embarking on a sudden and severe tightening of fiscal policy, in unison, before economic recovery has reached safe take-off speed. The experiment was last tried in the 1930s.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8680240/The-Wests-horrible-fiscal-choice.html
The theoretical model behind the austerity push – known as an "expansionary fiscal contraction" – is based on the work of German theorists, and more recently on studies by Harvard professor Alberto Alesina and a group of brave scholars willing to defy the canonical doctrine of post-war Keynesian economics.
The Alesina view has been embraced by the European Central Bank and the budget cutters of the Eurogroup, but has enraged America's professoriat and set off a heated argument across the world.
Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said there is now a one-third chance of a full-blown recession next year in the US. Nobel leaureate Paul Krugman said obscurantists had run amok. "What we're witnessing here is a catastrophe on multiple levels. We are doing a terrible thing. We are repeating all the mistakes of the 1930s, doing our best shot at recreating the Great Depression," he said.
Fear that a synchronized squeeze in half the global economy may go horribly wrong has seeped into market psychology, explaining why the $2.4 trillion (£1.5 trillion) debt deal agreed in Washington has failed to spark a relief rally. Wall Street is a step ahead, bracing for cuts in an economy that has already slipped to stall speed.
Angst over faltering recovery explains why Italian and Spanish bonds have suddenly buckled. The European Commission said the spike in Latin spreads is "clearly unwarranted" given that Rome and Madrid are sticking to their austerity plans, but this misses the point.
Investors no longer see austerity as a solution if cuts go beyond the therapeutic dose and tip Italy and Spain back into recession, playing havoc with fragile debt dynamics.
The US is expected to tighten by 2pc of GDP next year, including the expiry of payroll tax cuts and the phase-out of President Barack Obama's stimulus plan. Britain is tightening by 1.7pc this year and almost as much next year. Harsher versions are under way in Ireland and Club Med. Greece is retrenching by 16pc over three years. Canada, France and Germany will all tighten in 2012.
The International Monetary Fund said the combined effect is double the last sychronized squeeze in 1980. It comes as China is curbing credit to cool its property boom.
The Alesina school cites a string of cases where fiscal cuts led to robust recovery, and a few booms. Their work cannot be dismissed lightly and exposes the limits of New Keynesian models, which often clash with historical reality and human behaviour.
The textbook cases are: Italy (1970s); Ireland, Denmark and Sweden (1980s); Canada, Spain and the UK (1990s). There were some flops, too: Finland (1970s), Australia, Belgium and Greece (1980s), and Italy (1990s). Context is crucial. Dr Alesina says one clear message comes through from the stack of evidence: "Tax increases are much worse for the economy than spending cuts."
A study by Goran Hjelm from Sweden's Institute of Economic Research said the formula only really works when countries can let their currencies slide and export their way out of trouble. This is not possible for Spain and Italy within EMU, nor for the combined West at the same time. "We can't all devalue together and export to Mars," said Jamie Dannhauser from Lombard Street Research.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has called for a "grand bargain" of the world's major players to ensure that the burden of rectifying global imbalances does not fall on debtors alone, which feeds a vicious circle. "The need to act in the collective interest has yet to be recognised. Unless it is, it will be only a matter of time before one or more countries resort to protectionsism. That could, as in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world," he said.
Fiscal contractions work best in small countries where state spending gobbles up half of GDP and where confidence has already collapsed. Getting a grip creates a huge sense of relief. Bond yields fall far enough to offet fiscal pain.
This hardly applies to the AAA bloc today: Gilt yields are trading at post-war lows of 2.73pc, while 10-year US Treasuries are 2.57pc, German Bunds are 2.4pc and Japan's JGBs are 1pc. Central banks can do little to offset budget cuts when rates are already near zero, though £200bn of quantitative easing has cushioned the blow in the UK.
Britain had its own intriguing story during the Great Depression in 1932 when it passed a draconian budget, yet recovered well. The trick was to slash rates, devalue by a quarter and retreat behind imperial tariffs. But by then the international system had already collapsed.
Of course, rich nations may not have the luxury of spending their way out of trouble any longer. The Bank for International Settlements warned last year that fiscal woes are already near "boiling point" as demographics go from bad to worse and average public debt surpasses 100pc of GDP. "Current fiscal policy is unsustainable in every country. Drastic improvements will be necessary to prevent debt ratios from exploding," it said.
The indebted West is in a frightening bind: damned if it does, and equally damned if it doesn't.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The West's horrible fiscal choice
The US, Britain, and Europe are together embarking on a sudden and severe tightening of fiscal policy, in unison, before economic recovery has reached safe take-off speed. The experiment was last tried in the 1930s.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8680240/The-Wests-horrible-fiscal-choice.html
The theoretical model behind the austerity push – known as an "expansionary fiscal contraction" – is based on the work of German theorists, and more recently on studies by Harvard professor Alberto Alesina and a group of brave scholars willing to defy the canonical doctrine of post-war Keynesian economics.
The Alesina view has been embraced by the European Central Bank and the budget cutters of the Eurogroup, but has enraged America's professoriat and set off a heated argument across the world.
Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers said there is now a one-third chance of a full-blown recession next year in the US. Nobel leaureate Paul Krugman said obscurantists had run amok. "What we're witnessing here is a catastrophe on multiple levels. We are doing a terrible thing. We are repeating all the mistakes of the 1930s, doing our best shot at recreating the Great Depression," he said.
Fear that a synchronized squeeze in half the global economy may go horribly wrong has seeped into market psychology, explaining why the $2.4 trillion (£1.5 trillion) debt deal agreed in Washington has failed to spark a relief rally. Wall Street is a step ahead, bracing for cuts in an economy that has already slipped to stall speed.
Angst over faltering recovery explains why Italian and Spanish bonds have suddenly buckled. The European Commission said the spike in Latin spreads is "clearly unwarranted" given that Rome and Madrid are sticking to their austerity plans, but this misses the point.
Investors no longer see austerity as a solution if cuts go beyond the therapeutic dose and tip Italy and Spain back into recession, playing havoc with fragile debt dynamics.
The US is expected to tighten by 2pc of GDP next year, including the expiry of payroll tax cuts and the phase-out of President Barack Obama's stimulus plan. Britain is tightening by 1.7pc this year and almost as much next year. Harsher versions are under way in Ireland and Club Med. Greece is retrenching by 16pc over three years. Canada, France and Germany will all tighten in 2012.
The International Monetary Fund said the combined effect is double the last sychronized squeeze in 1980. It comes as China is curbing credit to cool its property boom.
The Alesina school cites a string of cases where fiscal cuts led to robust recovery, and a few booms. Their work cannot be dismissed lightly and exposes the limits of New Keynesian models, which often clash with historical reality and human behaviour.
The textbook cases are: Italy (1970s); Ireland, Denmark and Sweden (1980s); Canada, Spain and the UK (1990s). There were some flops, too: Finland (1970s), Australia, Belgium and Greece (1980s), and Italy (1990s). Context is crucial. Dr Alesina says one clear message comes through from the stack of evidence: "Tax increases are much worse for the economy than spending cuts."
A study by Goran Hjelm from Sweden's Institute of Economic Research said the formula only really works when countries can let their currencies slide and export their way out of trouble. This is not possible for Spain and Italy within EMU, nor for the combined West at the same time. "We can't all devalue together and export to Mars," said Jamie Dannhauser from Lombard Street Research.
Bank of England Governor Mervyn King has called for a "grand bargain" of the world's major players to ensure that the burden of rectifying global imbalances does not fall on debtors alone, which feeds a vicious circle. "The need to act in the collective interest has yet to be recognised. Unless it is, it will be only a matter of time before one or more countries resort to protectionsism. That could, as in the 1930s, lead to a disastrous collapse in activity around the world," he said.
Fiscal contractions work best in small countries where state spending gobbles up half of GDP and where confidence has already collapsed. Getting a grip creates a huge sense of relief. Bond yields fall far enough to offet fiscal pain.
This hardly applies to the AAA bloc today: Gilt yields are trading at post-war lows of 2.73pc, while 10-year US Treasuries are 2.57pc, German Bunds are 2.4pc and Japan's JGBs are 1pc. Central banks can do little to offset budget cuts when rates are already near zero, though £200bn of quantitative easing has cushioned the blow in the UK.
Britain had its own intriguing story during the Great Depression in 1932 when it passed a draconian budget, yet recovered well. The trick was to slash rates, devalue by a quarter and retreat behind imperial tariffs. But by then the international system had already collapsed.
Of course, rich nations may not have the luxury of spending their way out of trouble any longer. The Bank for International Settlements warned last year that fiscal woes are already near "boiling point" as demographics go from bad to worse and average public debt surpasses 100pc of GDP. "Current fiscal policy is unsustainable in every country. Drastic improvements will be necessary to prevent debt ratios from exploding," it said.
The indebted West is in a frightening bind: damned if it does, and equally damned if it doesn't.
_ きたがわ ― 2011/08/04 21:23
中国が日本のように大規模な武力攻撃に出るとは思えません。むろん、北朝鮮もです。
なぜなら、戦前の日本は、まがりなりにも議会制民主主義国家であり、マスコミや世論を気にしないといけなかった。しかしながら、中国や北朝鮮は、非民主主義国家なので、世論をある程度、抑えることができます。
戦前の日本だって、アメリカと戦えば、自分たちが自滅することなど分かっていた人も多かった。でも、マスコミや世論が暴走したために、そのへんの微妙な国際戦略で動くことが出来なくなった。
そういうふうに考えたら、中国や北朝鮮以上に暴走しやすいのは、韓国のほうでしょう？
なぜなら、戦前の日本は、まがりなりにも議会制民主主義国家であり、マスコミや世論を気にしないといけなかった。しかしながら、中国や北朝鮮は、非民主主義国家なので、世論をある程度、抑えることができます。
戦前の日本だって、アメリカと戦えば、自分たちが自滅することなど分かっていた人も多かった。でも、マスコミや世論が暴走したために、そのへんの微妙な国際戦略で動くことが出来なくなった。
そういうふうに考えたら、中国や北朝鮮以上に暴走しやすいのは、韓国のほうでしょう？
_ Y-SONODA ― 2011/08/05 07:45
きたがわさんへ
＞中国が日本のように大規模な武力攻撃に出るとは思えません。むろん、北朝鮮もです。
そうなんですよね。おそらく両国ともブチギレそうでブチギレない。
ブチギレ仲間になってくれればホッとするのにブチギレてくれそうにない。
とはいえすべての可能性を排除できないほど今や世界は不安定。
勝てるうちに米国が先手を仕掛ける可能性も一応疑った方がいいと思います。
イラクの例もありますからね。
＞中国が日本のように大規模な武力攻撃に出るとは思えません。むろん、北朝鮮もです。
そうなんですよね。おそらく両国ともブチギレそうでブチギレない。
ブチギレ仲間になってくれればホッとするのにブチギレてくれそうにない。
とはいえすべての可能性を排除できないほど今や世界は不安定。
勝てるうちに米国が先手を仕掛ける可能性も一応疑った方がいいと思います。
イラクの例もありますからね。
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アメリカは、断食療法を選んだわけで、何年かすれば健康体に戻るでしょうが、市場も縮んでしまう。
で、屑同然のユーロ債を山みたいに抱え、アメリカ市場の幾分かを失う中国がどう動くか。
ただ、ヒットラーですら、日本がアメリカに開戦するまでは、宣戦布告できなかったわけで、一緒に戦ってくれるお仲間なんかいない中国に、アメリカに本気で喧嘩を売る度胸があるとは思えませんが。