今、日本人が一番見たくない数字 ― 2009/11/20 07:56
「財政赤字の悪化は自民党の責任。俺たちには関係ない。」
民主党はこう言い張ることもできる。とはいえ、現実の数字は変わらない。
結局、民主党のマニフェストは現実を無視していただけ。
その結果、目玉の子ども手当や高速道路無料化、農家の戸別所得補償制度も今や大揺れ。
世界を見渡せば、「リーマン・ショックの次はジャパン・ショックか」とも噂される。
日本を震源地として、世界経済を二番底、三番底に落とし入れることになるのでしょうか。
＜関連記事引用＞
日本の財政悪化 突出 １４年債務残高ＧＤＰ比２．５倍（画像も引用）
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/atmoney/mnews/20091104-OYT8T00624.htm
ＩＭＦ見通し
【ワシントン＝岡田章裕】国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は３日、日米欧や中国、インドなど世界２０か国・地域（Ｇ２０）の債務残高見通しを公表した。日本については、金融危機対応の景気対策に加え、社会保障費の伸びなど「財政出動圧力が特に強い」と指摘し、２０１４年には国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）の約２・５倍に拡大するとした。Ｇ２０全体は約０・９倍、Ｇ２０内の先進国は約１・２倍で、日本の財政悪化が世界で突出していることを裏付けた。
ＩＭＦが７月に公表した見通しの第１弾と比べると、日本の債務残高の対ＧＤＰ比％は６・４ポイント上昇し、上昇幅はＧ２０内で最大だった。
ＩＭＦは、金融危機対応による国債増発などで長期金利が２％押し上げられると試算。危機対応の政策を平時に戻す「出口戦略」を「すぐに策定すべきだ」と警告している。
ＩＭＦ報告書 「日本は出口戦略必要」
早急な策定要求、財政赤字増を警戒
【ワシントン＝岡田章裕】国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）が３日公表した報告書は、主要２０か国・地域（Ｇ２０）に対し、金融危機対応の景気対策などで悪化した財政を健全化し、危機時の対応を平時に戻す「出口戦略」を早急に策定するよう求めた。政府債務残高がＧ２０で最悪にまで膨れあがる日本には、重い課題が突きつけられた。
報告書によると、日本の財政赤字が０９年にＧＤＰ比１０・５％、１４年はＧ２０で最悪の水準と見込まれる８・０％と高止まりする。国債などの新規借り入れに頼らず、政策に使う経費を税収など本来の収入でどれだけ賄えているかを示す構造的な基礎的財政収支（プライマリーバランス）は１０年に６・９％の赤字と、アイルランド、英国に次いで悪い。
報告書は、財政赤字が国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）比で１％増えると、長期金利を中期的に０・２％分上昇させると試算。長期金利上昇によって国債利払い費負担が高まる国として、「すでに高い債務残高の日本とイタリア」を挙げた。
両国については、「高い水準の財政赤字で、長期の低成長を経験したことが注目される」とも言及し、「このような財政赤字は経済成長を阻害する」と警鐘を鳴らしている。その上で、出口戦略への移行は「時期尚早」という基本認識を示しつつ、「（両国を含めた各国は）出口戦略を早急に策定しないと、財政への信頼性は損なわれ、雪だるま式に財政赤字が増える」と強調している。
報告書ではさらに、安定的な経済成長の実現に向けて、出口戦略に中期的な財政健全化目標を含めるべきだとした。具体的には、政府債務残高をＧＤＰ比で６０％以下に抑えるのが望ましいとしている。
ただ、日本が、総債務残高から年金給付積立金など金融資産を除外した純債務残高を３０年までに８０％以下に抑えるという目標を達成するには、プライマリーバランスを２０年までに６・５％の黒字に転換し、３０年までこの水準を維持する必要があるという。日本の財政健全化の困難さが改めて浮き彫りになった形だ。
（2009年11月4日 読売新聞）
ＩＭＦ、「日本の財政赤字悪化」、今年ＧＤＰ比１０．５％予測。
2009/11/04日本経済新聞朝刊
【ワシントン＝御調昌邦】国際通貨基金（ＩＭＦ）は３日、日米欧に新興国を加えた主要２０カ国（Ｇ２０）の財政見通しを発表した。日本については２００９年の財政赤字が国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）比で１０・５％と予測し、前回７月の試算から赤字幅が０・２ポイント拡大するとした。１４年の財政赤字も前回比０・４ポイント悪化の８・０％と試算。将来の財政再建の必要性を強調する内容となった。
ＩＭＦは１０月に公表した世界経済見通しに基づいて財政面を分析。日本の１４年時点の一般政府の債務残高は対象となった２０カ国で最も高いＧＤＰ比２４５・６％。前回より６・４ポイント悪化した。
日本は英国やアイルランドなどとともに、大規模な財政調整が必要になると指摘された。社会保障費の増加を背景に「特に日本は財政支出増加の圧力を受け続ける」という。
＜画像引用＞
The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor: November 2009
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2009/spn0925.pdf
＜関連記事＞
Société Générale tells clients how to prepare for 'global collapse'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/6599281/Societe-Generale-tells-clients-how-to-prepare-for-global-collapse.html
It is Japan we should be worrying about, not America
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6480289/It-is-Japan-we-should-be-worrying-about-not-America.html
Japan Spirals into Bankruptcy?
http://www.rightsidenews.com/200911057142/politics-and-economics/japan-spirals-into-bankruptcy.html
ＥＵ初代大統領に俳句嗜むファンロンパイ・ベルギー首相、脚光浴びるビルダーバーグ ― 2009/11/20 08:45
拙著｢最新アメリカの政治地図｣の主役、エティエンヌ・ダビニオンとキッシンジャーが大活躍！
＜関連記事引用＞
Profile: Herman Van Rompuy, Belgium's Mr Fixit
Ian Traynor in Brussels
guardian.co.uk, Thursday 19 November 2009 22.38 GMT
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/19/herman-van-rompuy-eu-president
Herman Van Rompuy, Belgium's centre-right prime minister, pulled off the coup of a long political career tonightby ascending to the post of president of the European Council, the new summiteering role established by the Lisbon treaty.
Known as Belgium's Mr Fixit for his low-key, patient work behind the scenes struggling to hold a fractious country together, Van Rompuy won the bad-tempered contest for the role by making friends and influencing people.
He has been a fixture in Roman Catholic and Christian Democratic politics for decades, but he shuns the limelight, appears ascetic and austere, and prefers to conduct his politics away from public gaze. Derided by British Europhobes as "Rumpypumpy", the obscure embodiment of an elitist EU mafia bent on demolishing the nation state, Van Rompuy owed his extraordinary triumph to strong support from Berlin and Paris and to the fact that he has not been around EU summits long enough to make any enemies.
A classicist and economist by education and an alumnus of Belgium's ancient Catholic University of Leuven, Van Rompuy is a committed European federalist, a position that suits the core and oldest EU member states, but raises many eyebrows among east Europeans, Scandinavians, and, of course, the British.
"Europe has no use for iconoclasts, the old continent is crying out for calm steadfastness," De Standaard, the leading Flemish newspaper, writes tomorrow of the unlikely victory for Van Rompuy. "He will soon be the first president of Europe. Never in his wildest dreams could the Christian Democrat have thought the best was yet to come."
Van Rompuy has been prime minister of Belgium for less than a year, summoned last December by King Albert II, to try to salvage a country plagued by tensions between Dutch-speaking Flanders to the north and Francophone Wallonia to the south.
Previously, the king had employed Van Rompuy as the key intermediary cajoling the two alienated halves of the country into shortlived coalitions.
In an EU that prizes consensus, compromise and operates as a supranational coalition of different countries, interests, and political forces, Van Rompuy's talents for persuasion and conciliation look to be his prime qualifications for the job of chairing EU summits and trying to harmonise the EU agenda. His appointment frustrated those eager to show greater European muscle abroad by giving the job to a household name like Tony Blair. The criticism is that in an international crisis, Van Rompuy does not have the stature to stand alongside Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, or Hu Jintao and that Europe will be relegated to the second division of international powers.
Van Rompuy enjoys a reputation for self-deprecating wit. The appearance of modesty is said to mask steely determination, sharp intelligence, and strongly held views which he seldom reveals. He does not suffer fools and can be withering in private about political opponents, say Belgian sources.
Van Rompuy writes haiku in his native Dutch, and speaks French, English, and German. He is said to take himself off to a monastic retreat once a month. He is credited with easing the tensions which were threatening to tear Belgium apart last year, although he has accomplished that simply by putting off some of the biggest decisions which are the sources of the rancour.
In his prime role as chair of EU summits, he is likely to be more the servant of European national leaders rather than their master, another factor in his success.
EU jobs race could be marathon
Gavin Hewitt | 12:20 UK time, Tuesday, 17 November 2009
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/gavinhewitt/2009/11/all_the_signs_are_out.html
All the signs are out there that the European Union cannot agree on who should fill the top jobs that are supposed to define its future. The first hints are being dropped that the Thursday night dinner, where the 27 heads of government are supposed to chose a president and foreign policy chief, might extend into Friday morning breakfast or even beyond.
As each day passes new names surface and flash briefly across the screens of those following this race.
Late last week the Swedes were briefing that if the dinner were held immediately the Belgian Prime Minister, Herman Van Rompuy, would get the job of President of the European Council. He was the low-key figurehead favoured by the French and the Germans. But in this game of horse-trading it is dangerous to get out in front.
Once Van Rompuy had become the established favourite attention turned to his record. There was his successful deal-making in Belgium which limited antagonisms between French and Dutch speakers. What was less clear was his vision for Europe.
Some find this whole secretive process disturbing. Names are tossed around without Europe's voters being able to hear from them or to assess what they stand for. It prompted Vaira Vike-Freiberga, a former Latvian president, to demand that the EU "stop working like the former Soviet Union... in darkness and behind closed doors".
Further research into Van Rompuy soon revealed that at a meeting of the shadowy but influential Bilderberg Group he suggested EU-wide taxes might be needed to support the expanding EU budget. His party seems to favour the gradual replacement of national symbols with EU symbols. The revelations at once make him a controversial choice with sections of the European electorate. It could even make it difficult for some countries to support him.
It is in this context that the candidacy of Tony Blair still flickers. Without an agreed candidate for president there could be a vote and the former Labour leader might still come through. Certainly the British government is still pushing his name.
There are signs that others, like the Poles, believe that potential candidates need to be heard from. The Swedes, who hold the rotating presidency, say it is impossible to open up the process because many potential office-holders hold power and to run for a European job would undermine their standing back home.
So, in this vacuum, other names are touted. Their merits are weighed less in terms of how they would perform but more as to how they would affect the balance between political groupings and small countries versus large countries.
Meanwhile from the sidelines are voices reminding Europe's leaders that the rest of the world is watching. This from a state department official in Washington: "It's up to post-Lisbon Europe to put its house in order in a way that would allow us to be effective partners. Europe's choices in the coming months are going to be very important."
As I said yesterday, Europe's leaders long for greater influence but fear any diminution of their own powers.
＜画像引用＞
European Union gets medieval with ultra-secret elections
http://www.russiatoday.com/Politics/2009-11-19/european-union-medieval-elections.html?fullstory
Van Rompuy shows his hand at Bilderberg Group dinner
http://www.mediargus.be/flanderstoday.admin.en/rss/24083620.html?via=rss&language=en
＜ビルダーバーグ関連記事＞
▼Top candidate debates EU tax at elite dinner
http://euobserver.com/18/28993
Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy, a top candidate for the new European Union president job, laid out his views on future EU financing at a dinner of the secretive Bilderberg group last week.
The event took place at Val Duchesse, a former priory on the outskirts of Brussels, on Thursday (12 November), with guests including Belgian industrialist and Bilderberg chairman Etienne Davignon, former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger and luminaries from the worlds of international politics and business, according to Belgian broadsheet De Tijd.
Who speaks for Europe? Criticism of 'shambolic' process to fill key jobs
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/nov/17/top-european-job-selection-process
EU Presidency candidate Herman Van Rompuy calls for new taxes
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/6582837/EU-Presidency-candidate-Herman-Van-Rompuy-calls-for-new-taxes.html
Herman Van Rompuy, front-runner for presidency, wants EU-wide tax
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article6919380.ece
Italian MP Denounces Bilderberg Influence During European Parliament Meeting
http://www.infowars.com/italian-mp-denounces-bilderberg-influence-during-european-parliament-meeting/
Premier steekt nek uit op Bilderberg-diner
http://www.tijd.be/nieuws/binnenland/Van_Rompuy_steekt_nek_uit_op_Bilderberg-diner.8259003-438.art
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